:Issued: 2024 May 02 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40502 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 May 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 129 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 014 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.9-flare, with peak time 14:40 UTC on May 01 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and is rotating over the west limb. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the second largest and is responsible for most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 (beta- gamma) has rotated over the east limb and produced some minor C-class flaring. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 06:36 UTC on May 01, shows a possible glancing blow late on May 04. Coronal holes: A small positive polarity low-latitude coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth on May 04. Solar wind: Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 13 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -12 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 324 to 407 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 129, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 May 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 135 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 010 ESTIMATED AP : 010 ESTIMATED ISN : 105, BASED ON 22 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 01 1417 1432 1437 S05W75 M1.8 SN 74/3654 III/1 01 1437 1444 1448 S08W75 M1.9 SN 74/3654 III/1 01 2226 2231 2237 N25E24 M1.8 SN ///3663 V/3III/2 02 0207 0217 0224 N25E23 M1.0 1N 84/3663 VI/1 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#